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01/19/10 10:19 AM
Beware conventional wisdom
In the past weekend, six of ESPN’s eight professional NFL analysts picked the Dallas Cowboys to defeat the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings smashed the Cowboys so badly that the visitors from Dallas whined afterwards about a superfluous touchdown at the end of the game.
All eight of ESPN’s professional NFL analysts picked the San Diego Chargers to defeat the New York Jets. The Jets handled the Chargers and will play the Indianapolis Colts in Indy on Sunday.
To their credit, all eight predicted the Colts victory over Baltimore.
Even with the unanimity for the Colts, three of ESPN’s NFL experts, Mike Golic, Seth Wickersham and Merril Hoge, picked three of the weekend’s four games incorrectly. They made those picks even though the network's "Accuscore" computer simulation system predicted three of the four games correctly.
Why did this happen and what should it mean for you?
Conventional wisdom about what will happen next week often is based on what happened last week. Conventional wisdom comes from opinions that spread virally, from talk shows to columnists to bars and back to talk shows with the original rationales disappearing in the trail.
For those who need to steer conventional wisdom, it’s important to push the thoughts of opinion leaders with fresh information and appealing arguments. For those who need to predict outcomes, it’s important to resist the instant theorists and rely on those with perspective and experience.
In the past weekend, six of ESPN’s eight professional NFL analysts picked the Dallas Cowboys to defeat the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings smashed the Cowboys so badly that the visitors from Dallas whined afterwards about a superfluous touchdown at the end of the game.
All eight of ESPN’s professional NFL analysts picked the San Diego Chargers to defeat the New York Jets. The Jets handled the Chargers and will play the Indianapolis Colts in Indy on Sunday.
To their credit, all eight predicted the Colts victory over Baltimore.
Even with the unanimity for the Colts, three of ESPN’s NFL experts, Mike Golic, Seth Wickersham and Merril Hoge, picked three of the weekend’s four games incorrectly. They made those picks even though the network's "Accuscore" computer simulation system predicted three of the four games correctly.
Why did this happen and what should it mean for you?
Conventional wisdom about what will happen next week often is based on what happened last week. Conventional wisdom comes from opinions that spread virally, from talk shows to columnists to bars and back to talk shows with the original rationales disappearing in the trail.
For those who need to steer conventional wisdom, it’s important to push the thoughts of opinion leaders with fresh information and appealing arguments. For those who need to predict outcomes, it’s important to resist the instant theorists and rely on those with perspective and experience.